Predict What? Will Kanye run for president? A Tour of the Political Prediction Markets!

A very interesting site called came to my attention last week while listening to The Political Trade Podcast with Dylan Ratigan and the producers of Luckbox Magazine. I was intrigued at their overview of the political trading markets. In the latest episode, Dylan walks through his favorite questions around the coming election–not necessarily who will win, but which is the most profitable trade. If you’re interested in trying it out, playing the latest podcast (6/26/20 #19 at the time of publication) while going through the site and placing a few trades is a good way to get started. There’s never been a better time to bet on if Kanye will run for president! Some of the item you can bet on trade are shown below. For the simple questions, you start by buying a YES contract or a NO contract for a few cents. The price represents probability of the outcomes occurring. The idea is that the probability of your choice goes up, or reaches a binary outcome of 1$ max. Questions such as who be the VP, or will Trump drop out before 11/1/20 are sample questions you can trade. Now we’re wondering if Kanye will run for president?

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